2026 Midterm Forecast

Senate, House and governors · Updated November 2, 2026 · Election Day is November 3

Safe DLikely DLean DTilt DTilt RLean RLikely RSafe RNo raceEven splitDemocrats, not upRepublicans, not upTilt = toss-up with a slight edge (under 3 points)

Senate

Democrats have a narrow edge to win the Senate

51–49 projected seatsDemocrats win control: 59%

51 seats for a majority. Republicans hold the tiebreaking vote.

51 for majority

Closest races

MEJackson vs CollinsD +0.1
OHBrown vs HustedR +0.4
SCAndrews vs GrahamR +1.7
AKPeltola vs SullivanR +1.9
KSHamilton vs MarshallD +2.1
TXTalarico vs PaxtonD +2.1
MIEl-Sayed vs RogersD +2.7
IATurek vs HinsonR +3.0

House

Democrats are strong favorites to win the House

232–203 projected seatsDemocrats win control: 96%

218 seats for a majority. Map shows each state's projected delegation.

185

108

218 for majority

Closest races

MISean McCann vs Bill HuizengaD +0.2
OHMarcy Kaptur vs Derek MerrinD +0.2
TXJohnny Garcia vs Carlos De La CruzR +0.3
OHKristina Knickerbocker vs Mike TurnerR +0.3
VAShannon Taylor vs Rob WittmanR +0.5
MOFred Wellman vs Ann WagnerD +0.5
WIRebecca Cooke vs Derrick Van OrdenR +0.6
KYZach Dembo vs Ralph AlvaradoR +0.7

Governors

Democrats are slight favorites to win most governorships

26–24 projected seatsDemocrats win control: 74%

Includes governors not on the ballot this year.

26 for majority

Closest races

OHActon vs RamaswamyR +0.2
GABottoms vs JacksonR +0.3
KSHolscher vs MastersonR +0.6
NVFord vs LombardoD +1.4
TXHinojosa vs AbbottR +3.1
VTJanoo vs ScottR +3.2
IASand vs LahnD +3.3
ORKotek vs DrazanD +4.5

Our previous forecast

How our final call compared with the result.

2024 Presidential Election

We called it: Trump 312, Harris 226

Final result312–226 56 of 56 states and districts called correctly

The swing states

State	Our forecast	Result
AZ	R +4.7	R +5.5	✓
NC	R +4.9	R +3.2	✓
NV	R +2.2	R +3.1	✓
GA	R +4.1	R +2.2	✓
PA	R +2.7	R +1.7	✓
MI	R +1.9	R +1.4	✓
WI	R +3.3	R +0.9	✓